Flawed thinking by numbers

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A look at some of the ways in which people go wrong when they try to use statements of probability in arguments for supernatural beings, divine plans and dismissing evolution.

Here is an interactive version of the Monty Hall Dilemma for those who want to see the results of sticking versus switching:



For anyone who has trouble with the Monty Hall dilemma, go through the permutations of door choices and door openings:

You choose door 1. Car is behind 3. Host opens 2
Stick = lose. Switch = win.

You choose door 1. Car is behind 2. Host opens 3
Stick = lose. Switch = win.

You choose door 1. Car is behind 1. Host opens 2 or 3
Stick = win. Switch = lose.

You choose door 2. Car is behind 3. Host opens 1
Stick = lose. Switch = win.

You choose door 2. Car is behind 2. Host opens 1 or 3
Stick = win. Switch = lose.

You choose door 2. Car is behind 1. Host opens 3
Stick = lose. Switch = win

You choose door 3. Car is behind 3. Host opens 1 or 2
Stick = win. Switch = lose.

You choose door 3. Car is behind 2. Host opens 1
Stick = lose. Switch = win.

You choose door 3. Car is behind 1. Host opens 2
Stick = lose. Switch = win.

Considering all 9 permutations, you win 2/3 times if you switch. You lose 2/3 times if you stick.

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Channel: Education
Uploaded: September 2, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Author: QualiaSoup

Length: 00:08:13
Rating: 4.93
Views: 2485

Tags: flawed logic maths

Video Comments:
bettySwollox (November 5, 2008 at 8:44 pm)
The old "chance of God existing is 50/50" argument, is as flawed as saying that the chance of me winning the lottery is 50/50, as I'll either win the lottery or I won't.
QualiaSoup (November 6, 2008 at 12:33 pm)
Another great example, Betty.
simonrorke (October 2, 2008 at 4:15 pm)
I remember when I first discovered Aquinas's proofs of god, and how I was puzzled that they were very ancient. I was curious as to why anyone doubted the existence of god in light of such overwhelming logic. Here is one:
1 - FIRST MOVER: Some things are in motion, anything moved is moved by another, and there can't be an infinite series of movers. So there must be a first mover (a mover that isn't itself moved by another). This is God.
KadeshSa (October 5, 2008 at 10:10 am)
Every step in that argument is disputable. On what basis do you allow the assumption that there can't be an infinite series of movers? Then, allowing that assumption, how can you assume that the single remaining mover is a God? The absolute most that argument could prove is that a first event caused all subsequent events - it is pure speculation to attribute this first event to a divine being.
Fishqueen1972 (October 27, 2008 at 3:33 pm)
You're statements contradict eachother. First you say that anything in motion has a mover. But if God moved something then he is motion. So that means that anything in motion doesn't necessarily need a mover. If God doesn't need a mover, then why do you assume we do? If you think it is possible that God is infinite then why not an infinite chain of movers? Perhaps the movers are connected in a circle. If God needs no creator, then perhaps the chain doesn't either.
KadeshSa (October 1, 2008 at 1:23 am)
This video deserves 1000x as many views as it currently has.
QualiaSoup (October 1, 2008 at 10:58 am)
Thanks, KadeshSa! And welcome to the channel.
RedneckSkippy (September 26, 2008 at 6:06 pm)
Well, I followed yah when you were speakin' 'bout makin' money, but then yah jumped me with the radical idear that there ain't a God. Imma label you a heathen.
Jacnas (September 24, 2008 at 6:56 pm)
To better visualize the monty hall dilemma imagine that there are initially not three doors but a hundred. You pick the door and are 99% likely to have picked the wrong one. Then the host eliminates 98 doors leaving you only with your original choice and one other option. Do you see now why it would be wiser to switch?

If you're still not convinced bear in mind that the host's choice was not random.
SteelBalor (September 12, 2008 at 11:48 pm)
Arg why do I find this so hard to understand. I can see the maths but it just dont want to accept it. Oh iv just had an epiphany if the host can never open the winning door then Obviously this will make it more likely that the one you have chosen is not the prize door... i think. this will require some more thinking.